Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Earthquake prediction is a Hoax!

The predicitions that being circulated in emails, texts and blogs (including my blog) about the earthquake prediction on July 18, 2008 is totally a bogus! I was finally relieved when ABS-CBN's TV Patrol already aired their investigation about this 47-year-old Brazilian teacher, Juseleeno Nobulega Daroose and his prophesy of the said 8.1 magnitude earthquake that will rock the Philippines. It was told that he just wrote these bogus predictions to earn popularity and to increase the traffic on his blog! Imagine that?...He's a sick man!!! We’re supposed to know it as a fact, and we’ve learned it in school that no one, not even the best seismologist, can predict when and where an earthquake will strike, as well as its exact magnitude. And yet, even the supposedly well-informed get rattled when they receive e-mails or text messages that an earthquake will strike a certain area, on a certain day and at an exact time.

To assuage public fear and panic, the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) was forced to issue a statement declaring the text message and emails a hoax.

News from ABS-CBN News:
The Brazilian clairvoyant foresees a tragic event hitting the Philippines on July 18, 2008: an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1, causing widespread deaths and destruction. His alleged prophesy has been posted and reposted in various blogs, inviting discussions about its authenticity.

For PHIVOLCS Director Renato Solidum Jr., however, a person who receives such a message should ask, "Does this person exist?"

"They have to verify if that person exists and check whatever statement made supposedly by that person… You have to know the veracity of that e-mail," Solidum told

Solidum said many Filipinos tend to be alarmed when receiving e-mails or text messages warning of a supposedly imminent quake because they put more weight on prophesies than scientific analyses.

He acknowledged that much still needs to be done in educating the public about earthquakes.

Solidum cautioned the public against spreading wrong information to other people. He reminded the public that not all things written on the web or sent through text messages are true.

He reiterated that scientists still cannot predict when an earthquake will strike.

"What we need to do is make sure that we always send the message that the reality is, this is how far science has gone: nobody can predict an earthquake as to the exact magnitude, time and actual date," Solidum said.

What seismologists can only do, for now, is estimate the magnitude of an earthquake coming from a certain fault. For the Marikina fault line, for instance, seismologists have raised the possibility of a 7.2 magnitude earthquake, in case it moves.

"It’s an estimate of the maximum credible earthquake that that fault can move. As to when it will exactly move, no one knows. It can be small and it can be big. You have to prepare for the big ones," he said.

Earthquakes can happen anytime, especially in earthquake-prone countries such as the Philippines. Filipinos must know what to do before, during and after an earthquake.
"Of course, strong earthquakes will happen, so we need to prepare. In fact, there were strong earthquakes that happened in the past, including a magnitude of 8.3, so that is not unusual," he said. Solidum said the country must ensure that its houses, schools, hospitals and other infrastructures can withstand tremors, and its people must be educated about safety measures. He advised the public not to panic. There should also be a continuous effort to educate the youth about earthquake preparedness, especially those who have not experienced a strong earthquake. Solidum said the country is not yet 100 per cent ready, but "we’re better prepared than before."

1 comment:

Baby Betty said...

call it Hoaxzil, the country of all hoaxes